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AFP/Getty Images Key provisions of the Kyoto Protocol expire in December of 2012, and experts say there's no real global framework in place to replace the treaty that was supposed to be the first step toward ambitious actions on climate change. Above, a coal-fired power plant in eastern China. China is now the leading carbon dioxide emitter in the world.
As diplomats from around the world gather in Durban, South Africa, for talks about climate change, a big question looms: What will become of the Kyoto climate treaty, which was negotiated with much fanfare in 1997. The treaty was supposed to be a first step toward much more ambitious actions on climate change, but it is now on the brink of fading into irrelevance. That could have major implications for the future of United Nations climate talks.
Even under the best of circumstances, the Kyoto protocol would have made a barely measurable dent in the amount of greenhouse gases flowing into the Earth's atmosphere.
We have very little space left in our atmosphere to be continuing to pollute before we cross certain thresholds where impacts will be inevitable.
- Jennifer Morgan, director, Climate and Energy Program, World Resources InstituteFirst, the United States decided not to ratify the treaty, so our emissions aren't covered by the pact. Then China leapfrogged the U.S. to become the world's biggest emitter of carbon dioxide. But China is treated like a developing country under the Kyoto treaty, which means it has no obligations. Even so, Europe and a few other nations have been soldiering on.
But Jennifer Morgan, director of the Climate and Energy Program at the World Resources Institute says the treaty's day of reckoning now looms.
"The Kyoto Protocol's first commitment period, its first set of targets, ends next year. So the big question is, 'What happens next?'" she says. "Do the Kyoto countries, like Europe, move forward and put their new targets into a legally-binding treaty?"
The prospects are slim: Canada, Japan and Russia say they are not interested in pledging new reductions under the treaty. The United States and China prefer an alternate approach, which came out of the climate talks two years ago in Copenhagen. They have pledged to take action individually, but not under a binding treaty. However, those commitments aren't enough to prevent a 2-degree increase in global temperature, the internationally agreed upon goal.
"We have very little space left in our atmosphere to be continuing to pollute before we cross certain thresholds where impacts will be inevitable," she says. "So no matter what you're looking at, the current commitments are really quite inadequate."
The Future Of The Kyoto Protocol
The European Union has been the Kyoto Protocol's biggest champion, but it has ambivalent feelings about it now. Michael Grubb, a professor of climate change and energy policy at the University of Cambridge, says on the plus side, Europe likes the treaty because it has spelled out international rules, such as standards for counting carbon emissions. Europe uses those rules to limit its own emissions.
"Europe does not want to kind of jump into a void where there aren't any really agreed rules that bind on anything," Grubb says. "It's very reluctant to kill off the only actual legal framework that we've got."
On the downside, Europe is disappointed that the rest of the world did not follow its example. And Grubb says the economic crisis there has diminished the continent's appetite for more aggressive action.
"So there's a feeling that Europe is in a bit of a holding position on climate change, I'd say."
The real fight over the Kyoto treaty comes from nations in the developing world. They see the pact as a critical symbol of commitment by the rich nations to clean up a problem they largely created. South Africa's foreign minister, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, is presiding over the climate talks in Durban. And she says it's vital to these talks to either rekindle the Kyoto treaty, or to make progress on a successor.
"If this question is not resolved, the outcome on other matters in the negotiations will become difficult. A solution must be found," Nkoana-Mashabane says.
Her choice of words is quite diplomatic here: In fact, some nations have been threatening to pull the plug on the whole process if the Kyoto treaty is not reinvigorated. And they can do that, since the United Nations operates by consensus.
Alden Meyer, director of strategy and policy at the Union of Concerned Scientists, says that move would affect everything that's on the table at Durban, which is much more than commitments to limit emissions.
"If you think about it, it's actually counterproductive for developing countries to not move forward on adaptation, on reducing deforestation, on climate finance, because those are all things in their own self-interest. But the level of emotion and anger could be so big that they wouldn't think in those kind of terms and they would sort of block everything."
Technical structures set up by the Kyoto Protocol would live on even if nations didn't adopt new commitments under the treaty. But by now, the pact governs less than 20 percent of global emissions. So even if nations keep the treaty on life support in Durban, it has already lost its practical role as the foundation for a more ambitious climate agreement.
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U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, right, stand next to U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell, left, and football players from Nutley High School to announce that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will be developing national guidelines for managing sports-related concussions for student athletes, Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2011, in Nutley, N.J. According to the politicians, the CDC has agreed to adopt a key element of stalled legislation they sponsored which would have made such protocols mandatory. The lawmakers say the CDC protocols will be ready by 2014. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell of New Jersey announces the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will be developing national guidelines for managing sports-related concussions for student athletes, during a news conference at Nutley High School, Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2011, in Nutley, N.J. Pascrell and U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez said the CDC has agreed to adopt a key element of stalled legislation they sponsored which would have made such protocols mandatory. The lawmakers say the CDC protocols will be ready by 2014. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey stands next to Nutley High School football players while announcing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will be developing national guidelines for managing sports-related concussions for student athletes, Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2011, in Nutley, N.J. Menendez and U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell said the CDC has agreed to adopt a key element of stalled legislation they sponsored which would have made such protocols mandatory. The lawmakers say the CDC protocols will be ready by 2014. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey announces the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will be developing national guidelines for managing sports-related concussions for student athletes during a news conference at Nutley High School, Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2011, in Nutley, N.J. Menendez and U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell said the CDC has agreed to adopt a key element of stalled legislation they sponsored which would have made such protocols mandatory. The lawmakers say the CDC protocols will be ready by 2014. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell, center left, of New Jersey stands next to Nutley High School football players as he announces that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will be developing national guidelines for managing sports-related concussions for student athletes, during a news conference, Tuesday, Sept. 27, 2011, in Nutley, N.J. Pascrell and U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, center right, said the CDC has agreed to adopt a key element of stalled legislation they sponsored which would have made such protocols mandatory. The lawmakers say the CDC protocols will be ready by 2014. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)eval("var currentItemd57851005a80479aaeeb90a12c70b9ff = 1;");eval("var nextd57851005a80479aaeeb90a12c70b9ff = 0;");eval("var previousd57851005a80479aaeeb90a12c70b9ff = 0;"); 
NUTLEY, N.J. (AP) — As awareness continues to grow about sports-related concussions among student athletes, two New Jersey lawmakers say it's time for schools to start following nationwide protocols governing such injuries.U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez and Rep. Bill Pascrell announced Tuesday that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention agreed to study and develop national guidelines for managing sports-related concussions for student athletes.Menendez and Pascrell, both New Jersey Democrats, had sponsored legislation, which passed the House but stalled in the Senate, that would have made such protocols mandatory. Several states, including New Jersey, have laws requiring a physician's approval for a student to return to sports, but Pascrell said there needs to be nationwide guidance for schools and youth sports programs to follow."The science may be changing, but that's no excuse for not establishing a protocol," Pascrell said, referring to differing scientific findings on concussions. "We're close to that for our soldiers, we need to be even closer for our children."Stressing that "every concussion is brain damage," Pascrell said 41 percent of student athletes who suffer concussions return to playing too soon, sometimes with serious or even fatal consequences.The CDC will convene a panel of experts to define the scope of the protocol, review existing literature, review the current state of science on concussions and have protocols ready for distribution by fall of 2014, according to Pascrell."Sports are a great way for kids and teens to stay healthy and this project will help us continue the important work in traumatic brain injuries in sports and other activities," said Dr. Linda C. Degutis of CDC's National Center for Injury Prevention and Control. "CDC's new initiative on pediatric guidelines will work to improve diagnosis and management of brain injuries in younger children and teens who are injured on or off the playing field."About a dozen states, including New Jersey, have rules related to concussions and brain injuries among student athletes, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Other states are considering similar measures.Concussions are caused by a blow that forces the head to move violently. They can affect memory, judgment, reflexes, speech, balance and muscle coordination and the symptoms become worse if not properly treated. Young people, particularly girls, are more susceptible to long-term repercussions than adults.Pascrell started pushing for legislation after the October 2008 death of Montclair High school football player Ryne Dougherty. Dougherty reportedly sat out three weeks after suffering a concussion but was cleared to return to playing after taking a test. He collapsed after making a tackle his first game back, and died after suffering a brain hemorrhage.For years, the CDC has been working on the issue of sports-related concussions, and developed materials for coaches on steps to take if they think a student athlete suffered a concussion. Those steps include removing the athlete from the game or practice, and then having them evaluated by a health care professional with experience in concussions. The advice also suggests not returning the athlete to play until the health professional says it's OK, and telling the student's parents what happened.But Tuesday's announcement represents something broader. The CDC is putting together an expert panel to discuss possible pediatric guidelines for doctors on how to best diagnose and treat concussions that occur not only on the sports field but also from car accidents, falls and other causes. That might include a look at the type of assessments currently used, although exactly what the panel will examine hasn't been decided.The announcement was held at Nutley High School in New Jersey, where athletes say the school has adopted a strict policy in recent years on monitoring concussions.Seventeen-year-old Andre Hamlin has been playing football since he was in the third grade. Now a senior on the football team, he said he's noticed a major change in recent years, with coaches making awareness and testing for concussions mandatory.Hamlin said all student athletes take a computerized "impact test" of word problems and other questions that test brain function and must be cleared by a doctor before starting any sport.He said awareness of concussions is now common and that coaches tell players how to avoid concussions by keeping their heads up during football plays."It's something that's present throughout the season, our coach emphasizes it," Hamlin said. "If you see a player put their head down incorrectly it kind of gets your skin crawling, 'cause that's how you can get a concussion. We tell the younger kids: put your head up, and stay safe out there."___AP Medical Writer Mike Stobbe in Atlanta contributed to this report.___Follow Samantha Henry at http://www.twitter.com/SamanthaHenry.Associated Press 
