Contagion: Could it really happen?

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21 October 2011 Last updated at 23:39 GMT By Caroline Parkinson Health editor, BBC News website The film shows how panic and chaos spread Hollywood blockbusters are not normally known for their scientific accuracy. So how realistic is the new disaster movie Contagion, which depicts the spread of a killer virus across the world?

'Too late to contain swine flu', 'Sars virus 'mutating rapidly', 'Bird flu fear as mutant strain hits China and Vietnam'.

These are not lines from the film. They are all real headlines from the past decade.

They all relate to illnesses which it was feared could spread around the globe and kill millions.

But, while each has claimed lives, none has become the feared "modern plague".

So how realistic is the depiction of the spread of the fatal infectious disease in Contagion?

According to a one scientist who has already seen the film, the answer is very.

Prof John Edmunds, of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who looks at how best to tackle epidemics of disease, said: "It's obviously a worst-case scenario."

He added: "We can't rule it out as a possibility. And the science in the film was very good."

Likely candidates?

Contagion begins with Gwyneth Paltrow on a business trip in Hong Kong. It then shows how a virus she contracts spreads from person to person as she travels back home to the US and the chain of transmission begins.

Kate Winslet plays one of the scientists who tracks the virus

Prof Edmunds said it was possible to "quibble" about some of the scientific detail and the speed at which some things, like the development of a vaccine, happen in the film, which also stars Matt Damon, Jude Law and Kate Winslet.

But he added a great deal, such as the epidemiology - the investigation of the outbreak - and the involvement of the Center for Disease Control (CDC) was accurate.

"For example the 1918 flu pandemic was at least as severe as what's represented in Contagion.

"And in 2003 we had Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) - that was close to becoming a Contagion-like scenario.

"There were just two things that stopped it. People with Sars weren't infectious until they were showing symptoms, and by then they were in hospital. Also the hospitalisation and isolation provision was good."

But he said if those two things hadn't happened and the virus had spread more quickly and to places which didn't have the same healthcare systems, it would have been a different story.

And he said: "Aids is another example of a virus that has spread around the world. The only difference there is the mode of transmission."

When people think about viruses spreading around the world though, they tend to think of flu.

Bird flu - H5N1 - first appeared in 2003. Experts had been predicting that the world was due a major flu pandemic that would kill millions - and bird flu was seen as a likely candidate.

In the event, it has killed about 330 people since then, according to official statistics. But these were overwhelmingly people who farmed birds, or who had them in their own home.

At the moment it is self-defeating. It cannot spread easily between people because it kills its hosts quickly, thereby preventing its spread.

"Bird flu is extremely lethal," says Prof Edmunds. "About half the people with it have died. What has stopped it is it's not transmissible between humans, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that it could become transmissible."

Where and when?

And then there was swine flu.

Continue reading the main story Sars - 2002-04 - originated in China - 10% of the 8,100 infected died.Bird flu - 2003 onwards. H5N1 has infected 565 people globally, more than half of whom died. Reports in August suggested a mutated strain had been seen.Swine flu - emerged in Mexico in 2009. H1N1 affected millions, and almost 16,000 died.That first emerged in Mexico in 2009. It spread from country to country extremely quickly, because it was a new form of flu - H1N1 - that people did not have any resistance to.

By the end of February 2010, the pandemic had caused 15,921 deaths worldwide. However, by summer last year levels of the virus were falling and the World Health Organization (WHO) was able to declare the pandemic over.

But H1N1 was the prevalent strain of flu in the UK last winter, and it will be present again this year. It is different to most flus, in that it kills previously healthy adults. But for most, it is no worse than a normal flu.

It therefore has the capacity to spread like Contagion's virus, but isn't as likely to be fatal.

Gwyneth Paltrow is the first person affected

So, if Contagion depicts a possible, if worst-case, scenario, what's the most likely real-life candidate?

Well the scientists say it could be any of the things they know about, if they change or mutate in some way.

Prof Mike Catchpole, of the Health Protection Agency, said: "The one we watch particularly is flu. You only need to look back to the 1918 pandemic to see it can cause a huge number of cases - and a huge number of deaths.

"And we just don't know when or where the next pandemic flu will come along."

Or, perhaps more likely, the next global disease could be something that no-one has thought of yet.

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The Real Virologist Behind "Contagion"

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In the new movie "Contagion" virologist W. Ian Lipkin served as both a technical advisor for the film, and as the inspiration for one of its main characters (a virus hunter named "Ian"). Lipkin discusses his role in the film and his own work identifying real-life viruses.

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Virologist W. Ian Lipkin discusses the science behind the movie "Contagion."

The BBC host talks about his latest documentary on pterosaurs, Flying Monsters 3D.

Screenwriter Will Reiser and actor Joseph Gordon-Levitt talk about their comedy film about cancer.

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'Contagion' spreads to big screen

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Kate Winslet stars as a young detective in the virus-out-of-control movie "Contagion." Teaching advanced math and science isn't usually part of a big Hollywood thriller"Contagion" cast includes Kate Winslet, Gwyneth Paltrow, Matt Damon, Jude LawIdea for movie planted in writer Scott Burns when he saw online TED talk by Larry Brilliant

(CNN) -- At a critical moment in the newly released action-thriller movie "Contagion," the young disease detective, played by Kate Winslet, is using a dry-erase board to drive home the danger of the new virus that has wiped out thousands of people, including Gwyneth Paltrow.

Winslet's character uses a concept known as "R0" -- pronounced "R-naught"--- to explain to skeptical public health officials that the new virus could be much more contagious than influenza or polio.

"I wanted people to understand R0," explains Scott Z. Burns, who wrote the film, which was No. 1 at the box office this weekend. Here it is: R0 is the number of new cases that a single infected person will cause, on average. In most seasons, R0 for influenza is just below 2. In the devastating 1918 pandemic, it was likely above 3. With an R0 that high, the number of cases will grow exponentially, unless patients remain isolated or quickly receive effective treatment.

"Kate Winslet did an amazing job with it," says Burns. "That one scene is really a science and math lesson, but people seem to get it."

Advanced math and science aren't usually a part of a big Hollywood thriller, particularly one with "Contagion's" cast: not just Winslet and Paltrow but Matt Damon, Jude Law, Laurence Fishburne and Marion Cotillard, along with a cameo by CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta. But Burns and director Steven Soderbergh approached the project in an unusually dedicated way.

The germ of the idea was planted in Burns when he saw an online TED talk by Larry Brilliant, who was one of the doctors and scientists who finally eradicated the smallpox virus in the 1970s. By the time he gave the talk in 2006, he was working with Google to try and leverage the reach of the Internet to find early warning signs of a flu pandemic or other outbreak of deadly disease.

Burns reached out to Brilliant, who introduced him to Dr. W. Ian Lipkin, a scientist and disease detective at the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University.

Lipkin describes himself as an experimental pathologist -- "I figure out what went wrong." As a big part of his research, he examines tissue samples from around the world, looking for new and dangerous viruses. He began to hold one-on-one seminars with Burns at his office and his lab at Columbia, which evolved into a major role as a consultant on the film.

Lipkin says the science in "Contagion" is strong enough that the film could have a long life as a teaching tool for students, politicians and even public health officials.

Soon, Burns found himself poring through the daily reports of ProMedMail.com, a sort of listserv for scientists and infectious disease specialists, flagging unusual cases or findings anywhere in the world.

"You'd see three unexplained deaths in Africa, or two people with an unusual virus in India. I'd call Ian, and frequently he'd have been sent blood and tissue, to see what it was," Burns recalls.

For the right killer for "Contagion," "I wanted to find a virus that would be especially nefarious in that it wouldn't show up in an unusual way, that could be misinterpreted in an emergency room 5,000 miles away from where a person originally caught it."

Burns and Lipkin eventually focused on a pair of deadly, closely related viruses that primarily live in bats but occasionally infect people: Nipah, found in Southeast Asia, and Hendra, from Australia. With a screenwriter's glee, they genetically modified the fictional virus to let it spread readily through bodily fluids or coughing. Voila! A global killer.

By then, Brilliant had left Google to work at the Skoll Global Threats Fund, a foundation created by eBay co-founder Jeff Skoll to conduct research on large-scale dangers, including viruses. Another Skoll venture, Participant Media, founded with a mission to support films with important social messages, agreed to underwrite the development of the script. Ricky Strauss, Participant's president, served as an executive producer of "Contagion."

Meanwhile, Lipkin was opening more doors to the scientific community, including top officials at the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"Some of these places, they wouldn't have gotten the time of day," recalls Lipkin. "But I said, 'look, this is an important film. I wouldn't put my name on it if I didn't think it was going to be solid."

CDC not only allowed filmmakers to spend a day shooting "on campus," but senior scientists spent a day with Winslet to help her prepare for the role. Winslet's main guide at CDC was Dr. Anne Schuchat, who led the agency's response to the H1N1 pandemic.

"In my discussions, the key thing I wanted to get across was the intensity of these investigations, the focus you give and the 24/7 nature of it," says Schuchat. "You're disconnected from your regular life, and totally immersed in what you're doing."

Schuchat herself spent six weeks in China during the SARS outbreak in 2003, barely speaking to her family back home.

As part of its promotional effort, Participant Media also built a multifaced website, showcasing the work of leading virologists and public health experts. One of them is Dr. John Brownstein, an assistant professor of pediatrics at Children's Hospital in Boston, who has worked with Skoll to develop an online tool to flag outbreaks as they happen around the world.

Brownstein called it "a massive challenge" to break down the science of pandemics into a viewer-friendly message.

"In the absence of a vaccine or a therapeutic (medication), you couldn't come up with three things you could do right now to prevent a pandemic."

He says that people could somewhat slow the spread of a pandemic by taking simple measures like isolating themselves if they fall sick, or properly washing their hands. (Burns, incidentally, says he took away one new hand-washing lesson: Don't forget to wash your thumbs.)

Lipkin says the real message of the film is political: Don't slash budgets for disease research and early-warning systems.

In 2009, just a few months into development, it seemed as though real-world developments might hijack the film. That's when Burns put the project on hold and watched to see whether his imaginary scenario would be trumped by the real H1N1 virus. He found himself fascinated by the push and pull of officials struggling to answer questions from the public. He says the pressures are much the same for those officials and for journalists.

"It's tricky," Burns said. "You don't want to be the scientist who cried wolf, or the journalist who cried wolf. The thing is, they move so quickly, and if you don't sound the alarm quickly, you're way behind the curve."

In "Contagion," the CDC director, played by Fishburne, sends his own family into isolation, even as he offers a more reassuring take to the public. He's outed by an investigative blogger, played by Jude Law, who wins a mass following with his scoops on the pandemic -- some accurate, some deliberately misleading.

Brownstein says he loved the subplot.

"That to me is the most interesting part of the film. They have this knowledge, and people are holding it back. It plays with the idea of false reporting, and the viral nature of the Web and how it can lead to mistrust."

Schuchat says the CDC is trying to move toward more openness.

"The more we focus on transparency, the more credibility we have. We shared what we knew as we knew it, although we also were careful to say it might change -- this might not be the last word on it."

Now that his creation is decimating a world filled with some of Hollywood's biggest stars, Burns pauses when asked whether the project left him reassured or alarmed about our vulnerability to a newly emergent killer virus.

"On the one hand, writing it did freak me out. I wanted to be realistic, and I kept asking these scientists, 'Could this or that scenario really happen?' And they always said, 'Sure, it could happen.' On the other hand, I was reading an article two years ago, and it talked about how human DNA is littered with remnants of our battles with retroviruses. There's something poetic about that. So with people and viruses, when you look at in the longevity of the relationship, there's some comfort."

View the original article here

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'Contagion' spreads to big screen

AppId is over the quota
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Kate Winslet stars as a young detective in the virus-out-of-control movie "Contagion." Teaching advanced math and science isn't usually part of a big Hollywood thriller"Contagion" cast includes Kate Winslet, Gwyneth Paltrow, Matt Damon, Jude LawIdea for movie planted in writer Scott Burns when he saw online TED talk by Larry BrilliantTo find out more about the film "Contagion," watch Sanjay Gupta MD, Saturday and Sunday at 7:30 a.m. ET. Warner Bros is owned by Timer Warner Inc., which also owns CNN.

(CNN) -- At a critical moment in the newly released action-thriller movie "Contagion," the young disease detective, played by Kate Winslet, is using a dry-erase board to drive home the danger of the new virus that has wiped out thousands of people, including Gwyneth Paltrow.

Winslet's character uses a concept known as "R0" -- pronounced "R-naught"--- to explain to skeptical public health officials that the new virus could be much more contagious than influenza or polio.

"I wanted people to understand R0," explains Scott Z. Burns, who wrote the film, which was No. 1 at the box office this weekend. Here it is: R0 is the number of new cases that a single infected person will cause, on average. In most seasons, R0 for influenza is just below 2. In the devastating 1918 pandemic, it was likely above 3. With an R0 that high, the number of cases will grow exponentially, unless patients remain isolated or quickly receive effective treatment.

"Kate Winslet did an amazing job with it," says Burns. "That one scene is really a science and math lesson, but people seem to get it."

Advanced math and science aren't usually a part of a big Hollywood thriller, particularly one with "Contagion's" cast: not just Winslet and Paltrow but Matt Damon, Jude Law, Laurence Fishburne and Marion Cotillard, along with a cameo by CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta. But Burns and director Steven Soderbergh approached the project in an unusually dedicated way.

The germ of the idea was planted in Burns when he saw an online TED talk by Larry Brilliant, who was one of the doctors and scientists who finally eradicated the smallpox virus in the 1970s. By the time he gave the talk in 2006, he was working with Google to try and leverage the reach of the Internet to find early warning signs of a flu pandemic or other outbreak of deadly disease.

Burns reached out to Brilliant, who introduced him to Dr. W. Ian Lipkin, a scientist and disease detective at the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University.

Lipkin describes himself as an experimental pathologist -- "I figure out what went wrong." As a big part of his research, he examines tissue samples from around the world, looking for new and dangerous viruses. He began to hold one-on-one seminars with Burns at his office and his lab at Columbia, which evolved into a major role as a consultant on the film.

Lipkin says the science in "Contagion" is strong enough that the film could have a long life as a teaching tool for students, politicians and even public health officials.

Soon, Burns found himself poring through the daily reports of ProMedMail.com, a sort of listserv for scientists and infectious disease specialists, flagging unusual cases or findings anywhere in the world.

"You'd see three unexplained deaths in Africa, or two people with an unusual virus in India. I'd call Ian, and frequently he'd have been sent blood and tissue, to see what it was," Burns recalls.

For the right killer for "Contagion," "I wanted to find a virus that would be especially nefarious in that it wouldn't show up in an unusual way, that could be misinterpreted in an emergency room 5,000 miles away from where a person originally caught it."

Burns and Lipkin eventually focused on a pair of deadly, closely related viruses that primarily live in bats but occasionally infect people: Nipah, found in Southeast Asia, and Hendra, from Australia. With a screenwriter's glee, they genetically modified the fictional virus to let it spread readily through bodily fluids or coughing. Voila! A global killer.

By then, Brilliant had left Google to work at the Skoll Global Threats Fund, a foundation created by eBay co-founder Jeff Skoll to conduct research on large-scale dangers, including viruses. Another Skoll venture, Participant Media, founded with a mission to support films with important social messages, agreed to underwrite the development of the script. Ricky Strauss, Participant's president, served as an executive producer of "Contagion."

Meanwhile, Lipkin was opening more doors to the scientific community, including top officials at the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"Some of these places, they wouldn't have gotten the time of day," recalls Lipkin. "But I said, 'look, this is an important film. I wouldn't put my name on it if I didn't think it was going to be solid."

CDC not only allowed filmmakers to spend a day shooting "on campus," but senior scientists spent a day with Winslet to help her prepare for the role. Winslet's main guide at CDC was Dr. Anne Schuchat, who led the agency's response to the H1N1 pandemic.

"In my discussions, the key thing I wanted to get across was the intensity of these investigations, the focus you give and the 24/7 nature of it," says Schuchat. "You're disconnected from your regular life, and totally immersed in what you're doing."

Schuchat herself spent six weeks in China during the SARS outbreak in 2003, barely speaking to her family back home.

As part of its promotional effort, Participant Media also built a multifaced website, showcasing the work of leading virologists and public health experts. One of them is Dr. John Brownstein, an assistant professor of pediatrics at Children's Hospital in Boston, who has worked with Skoll to develop an online tool to flag outbreaks as they happen around the world.

Brownstein called it "a massive challenge" to break down the science of pandemics into a viewer-friendly message.

"In the absence of a vaccine or a therapeutic (medication), you couldn't come up with three things you could do right now to prevent a pandemic."

He says that people could somewhat slow the spread of a pandemic by taking simple measures like isolating themselves if they fall sick, or properly washing their hands. (Burns, incidentally, says he took away one new hand-washing lesson: Don't forget to wash your thumbs.)

Lipkin says the real message of the film is political: Don't slash budgets for disease research and early-warning systems.

In 2009, just a few months into development, it seemed as though real-world developments might hijack the film. That's when Burns put the project on hold and watched to see whether his imaginary scenario would be trumped by the real H1N1 virus. He found himself fascinated by the push and pull of officials struggling to answer questions from the public. He says the pressures are much the same for those officials and for journalists.

"It's tricky," Burns said. "You don't want to be the scientist who cried wolf, or the journalist who cried wolf. The thing is, they move so quickly, and if you don't sound the alarm quickly, you're way behind the curve."

In "Contagion," the CDC director, played by Fishburne, sends his own family into isolation, even as he offers a more reassuring take to the public. He's outed by an investigative blogger, played by Jude Law, who wins a mass following with his scoops on the pandemic -- some accurate, some deliberately misleading.

Brownstein says he loved the subplot.

"That to me is the most interesting part of the film. They have this knowledge, and people are holding it back. It plays with the idea of false reporting, and the viral nature of the Web and how it can lead to mistrust."

Schuchat says the CDC is trying to move toward more openness.

"The more we focus on transparency, the more credibility we have. We shared what we knew as we knew it, although we also were careful to say it might change -- this might not be the last word on it."

Now that his creation is decimating a world filled with some of Hollywood's biggest stars, Burns pauses when asked whether the project left him reassured or alarmed about our vulnerability to a newly emergent killer virus.

"On the one hand, writing it did freak me out. I wanted to be realistic, and I kept asking these scientists, 'Could this or that scenario really happen?' And they always said, 'Sure, it could happen.' On the other hand, I was reading an article two years ago, and it talked about how human DNA is littered with remnants of our battles with retroviruses. There's something poetic about that. So with people and viruses, when you look at in the longevity of the relationship, there's some comfort."

View the original article here

Peliculas Online

Read More